Flight prices drop because airline fares constantly fluctuate in response to factors like supply and demand, competition, and other airfare trends.
There are several signs that indicate flight drops are likely to occur. Knowing and understanding these patterns can help you travel without overpaying for airfare again.
Learn more about the 8 flight price drop signs to look out for below.
Historical flight price trends don’t provide a guarantee, but merely serve as a guide. These fare trends show that airline ticket prices drop within 1-2 months before your target travel date for domestic flights and 3-6 months for international flights.
Knowing historical fare trends helps you understand when prices lower and when it’s better to book flights early.
Autopilot can also confirm that booking midweek, from Tuesday to Thursday, has better fare drops.
Fare prices typically drop when the supply is high but demands are low. This usually happens during off or shoulder seasons, like spring and fall.
Airlines fluctuate prices frequently by tracking search volumes and booking behavior. Low demand triggers when fewer bookings occur, and search volumes lessen. This is generally the cheapest time to book flights.
Other indications of low demand include:
Changes in season is one of the strongest influencers of fluctuating airfare. Flight prices typically drop during these shifts in seasons:
Shifts in seasons greatly impact airfare trends. For example:
Airlines offer several superb money-saving deals throughout the year. You can find the biggest discounts during Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, and Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving.
During promotional days, airlines offer special promo codes, limited-time discounts, and lower rates on different fare classes.
Airlines also have several flash sales throughout the year, particularly in seasons of low demands, anniversaries, or events to promote new routes or aircrafts.
Expert tip: Turn on flight deal notifications on tracker apps and subscribe to airline emails or newsletters to know exactly when they offer discounted prices and promotions.
Competition is another significant trigger for airfare price drops. For example, if American Airlines lowers prices on routes, other airlines will also lower their fares to match it. Some airlines will significantly drop prices more than usual, triggering a short-lived fare war.
Flight routes offered by multiple airlines often have more noticeable and frequent price drops because of competitive pricing.
Here’s a money-saving hack: Input your booking details into Autopilot for flight price monitoring after booking. It’ll instantly claim money savings or flight credits for you.
Another expert tip on how to know if a flight price will drop: check seat availability on your booked flight. Although tedious, it’s one of the best indicators of flight drops. When numerous seats remain unbooked, airlines will lower prices to stimulate flight bookings.
Airlines will rather sell seats at lower prices than lose money by leaving them unbooked.
For further reading, check-out our article Flight Price Drop After Booking? Here's How to Get a Free Refund [Full Guide] to save money.
Flight price history trends show that booking during these times shows fare drops:
Statistics show that the best time to book a flight is in the middle of the week, although not assured. Studies by Google suggest booking midweek, whereas Expedia’s study showed buying a ticket on a Sunday saves money.
But like I’ve said before, there’s no guarantee. Use flight tracker apps or post-booking services, like Autopilot to best save money.
Flexibility is curcial for budget-friendly trips. Check days before and after your desired travel dates for lower fares or price drops.
Look out for these two signs that indicate flexible fares and possible airfare drops for your target date:
Learn more about flight price track tips by checking out the 41 Best Apps for Travel in 2025.
Now that we’ve discussed the 8 signs flight prices will drop, let’s talk about indications prices won’t drop. This is also helpful to better predict when to purchase tickets to save money.
Last-minute deals for tickets are extremely rare because airlines assume those booking last-minute are willing to overpay. Prices between 7 to 14 days of departure tend to soar. This is more particular to those booking higher fare classes, like Business or First Class.
Airlines take advantage of high demand. Fares are at their priciest or at a fixed rate.
High demands on flights occur during:
Demand also increases when there’s a major event in your destination, like festivals, concerts, and popular sports games.
Don’t expect airfare to drop if you see that there are almost no seats available in your booked flight. Sold-out Basic and Premium Economy seats indicate high demand. Whatever seats remain will have higher prices.
Historical airfare trends show that booking on a Tuesday is the best day to buy flights at affordable prices. You can also book on other days midweek for cheaper fare. But don’t solely rely on this. It’s best to use flight tracker apps to find cheap prices.
Popular airline price tracking sites are Google Flights, Kayak, and Skyscanner. These are known as Online Travel Agencies or OTAs. Take note that OTAs don't compare fare classes exactly so it’s best to use Autopilot for instant post-booking price-drop credits.
No, this is a myth. Airfare prices fluctuate throughout the day.
Yes. Airlines offer big promotions on Black Friday as well as other prominent national travel promos, like Cyber Monday.
